Track Record

Every published call, logged at publication with the reference price it was made against. Wins and losses both stay on the page.

DateAssetCallReference at publicationStatusOutcome
Oct 2026 Extended (XTEN) Long thesis: market pricing the launch well below base-case value of ~$860m FDV (18× forward revenue) ~$236m implied FDV (Polymarket) Open — awaiting TGE, expected Nov 2026 Pending

How this works. A call joins this table the day its thesis is published, with the market's own reference price recorded next to it, so performance since publication can be checked by anyone. When a call closes, it gets a post-mortem: what the thesis got right, what it got wrong, and what the scoreboard says. Nothing is deleted and nothing is quietly edited; updates go in the thesis update log instead.

There is one open call so far, on a token that has not launched yet, so there is no performance figure to show. That is the honest state of the record, and it will fill in as theses resolve.