Track Record
Every published call, logged at publication with the reference price it was made against. Wins and losses both stay on the page.
| Date | Asset | Call | Reference at publication | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | Extended (XTEN) | Long thesis: market pricing the launch well below base-case value of ~$860m FDV (18× forward revenue) | ~$236m implied FDV (Polymarket) | Open — awaiting TGE, expected Nov 2026 | Pending |
How this works. A call joins this table the day its thesis is published, with the market's own reference price recorded next to it, so performance since publication can be checked by anyone. When a call closes, it gets a post-mortem: what the thesis got right, what it got wrong, and what the scoreboard says. Nothing is deleted and nothing is quietly edited; updates go in the thesis update log instead.
There is one open call so far, on a token that has not launched yet, so there is no performance figure to show. That is the honest state of the record, and it will fill in as theses resolve.